NOAA just released a new projection of the most likly areas to be impacted by the Gulf spill. The news is not good for migrant shorebirds, who will arrive on the Gulf in September or so. On the good side two important shorebirds areas, the wintering sites for knots and other species in and around Tampa Bay Fl down to Fort Myers, and the Texas coast near Corpus Christi, are in the low probablity (1-20%) impact zones.
There are several bits of bad news. First, Bolivar Flats in the Galveston area is in the next highest risk category (21-40%). It is one of the most important shorebird sites on the Gulf (see Winnie Burketts Blog on her work on the flats) and already vulnerable with tar balls showing up on Galveston beaches last week. The tar balls were dismissed as a sign that the spill was moving towards Texas, but were judged to be shed by incoming tankers moving through the spill. Either way, the tar balls are an omious sign. As I have pointed out in an eariler blog, these tarballs can be enough to create impact to arctic-nesting shorebirds and resident breeders. The second bit of bad new is the eastern end of the Florida panhandle, an important site for wintering red knots and other birds, is in the same risk zone. Finally, virtually all of the high-risk impact zone is poorly surveryed for migrant shorebirds so the impact is going to be difficult to assess.
The picture keeps changing ,and ultimately, the impact to shorebirds will depend on the response of the US Fish and Wildlife Service and states who appear to be acting deliberatly and with good judgement.
